All Blacks make final statement before World Cup
The All Blacks secured the Tri-Nations title and the Bledisloe cup at the weekend making an emphatic statement about the credibility of their World Cup challenge.
In previous games they had looked vulnerable faced with stern defence, Dan Carter no longer appeared to be the faultless goal-kicker and there were concerns that New Zealand’s attacking style was not the way to win a World Cup.
All such fears have been allayed by their performance against Australia, where the front-five dominated the game, grinding out a determined win and Dan Carter was his usual metronomic self.
Their victory sends a warning shot to all those that had begun to suspect that they were going to fall short once again, and the All Blacks have convincingly restored their position as overwhelming favourites for the World Cup in September.
Australia edge out Springbok B team
Australia came very close to being embarrassed in their Tri-Nations match against South Africa at the weekend. After complaining about Jake White’s selection and his decision to rest most of his top players, if John Connelly’s team had lost, they would have had to eat their words.
When they went 17-0 down early in the match, it looked as though they would be completely humiliated. However, Stirling Mortlock and Matt Giteau inspired their team to fight back for a 25-17 win.
George Gregan and Stephen Larkham bade farewell to supporters after their last game on home soil, and they were lucky not to bow out in disappointing defeat.
On the evidence so far in the Tri-Nations, New Zealand still look like the team to beat at the Rugby World Cup. Australia will be there or there abouts, despite the weakness in the front five, whilst South Africa will be very difficult to overcome. The South is certainly looking like the strongest Hemisphere.
Australia v South Africa Preview
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This weekend, the Australian public will wave goodbye to their beloved half-backs George Gregan and Stephen Larkham, both of whom will retire after this year’s Rugby World Cup.
The match will be played despite controversy caused by Jake White’s decision to rest nearly all of his key players, with only Ruan Pienaar and JP Pietersen surviving from the Springboks’ win over Australia in South Africa.
With 231 caps between them, Gregan and Larkham have formed the spine of Australia’s team for several years, and that consistency in key positions has kept them competitive despite their weakenesses up front. They will both be sorely missed come October, when they leave to ply their trade in Europe.
Australia will be looking for revenge after their last-minute defeat in the reverse fixture, and after whingeing so publicly about South Africa’s selection, they will be very embarrassed if they lose. Fingers crossed!
Have a look at the video below, featuring an interview with George Gregan and his reflections on an illustrious career.
All Blacks slip up in Melbourne
Australia prevailed on Saturday where the Springboks couldn’t - by beating the best team in the world. Perhaps the All Blacks have lost their edge just as the World Cup is looming.
The Wallaby defence held firm for most of the match, and when Carl Hayman was sin-binned after 62 minutes, Australia seized their opportunity. Until then, their pack had been second best, but with an extra man they could build a platform from which to attack, and once in the lead, were able to hold out until the final whistle by keeping it tight - a feat South Africa could not manage.
Perhaps this is evidence that New Zealand will once again live up to their unenviable reputation of the best team between World Cups. Dan Carter appears to be a waning force at the moment, and defences are getting better at coping with their high-risk high-pace gameplan. Other teams will no longer have the same fear factor and it appears that their twenty-year wait for another world cup victory could continue.
Australia v New Zealand Preview
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The Tri-Nations roadshow moves on to Melbourne this weekend for the Australian leg of the competition. The Wallabies will host the match at the MCG, the first rugby match to be played there since 1998, when Australia beat New Zealand 24-16.
If history repeats itself tomorrow, I would be very surprised. All the signs suggest that New Zealand will win comfortably, following their bruising victory over South Africa last week.
The Australian pack has been one of their greatest weaknesses in recent years, and it will come under immense pressure from the All Blacks. New Zealand out-muscled the Springboks in the scrum last week, which is no mean feat, and Australia will not be able to live with the power.
Out wide, Australia look more of a force. They have some of the most experienced campaigners in Gregan (131 caps), Larkham (98), Mortlock (57), Giteau (44) and Tuquiri (52) - a total of 382 caps between just 5 players.
That said, will they be too old and slow to cope with the pace and physicality of the New Zealand runners? The likely lack of a forward platform will mean they are defending for most of the match, and fitness will be vital if they plan to keep the All Blacks at bay.
The Rugby Blog predicts a 24-point margin for the men in black, and the All Black juggernaut to roll on towards France.
Heartbreak for South Africa
The Springboks showed that the All Blacks were beatable on Saturday, but just didn’t quite manage it. They dominated the game for all but a ten-minute spell, exposing New Zealand in several areas and demonstrating to the rest of the world that they should not be afraid.
Two late tries from Richie McCaw and Joe Rokocoko ensured that the All Blacks crept home for the win, but it was South Africa that had the upper hand for the majority of the game. Nevertheless, credit must go to the winning side for maintaining their composure and for capitalising on the boks’ momentary lack of concentration.
The South African back row were ferocious throughout and dominated the All Blacks’ unit, but could not quite sustain their efforts for the duration. Schalk Burger was monumental in defence and just had the edge over McCaw, and it looked as though their ruthlessness in the breakdown would win the day.
As expected, the South Africans were menacingly competitive at the breakdown, they put pressure on the opposition lineout, and they kicked well out of hand to turn Sitiveni Sivivatu and Rokocoko. Indeed, this strategy led to their try just before half time.
Turnover ball was kicked into the corner for Mils Muliaina to field, but his only option was to run into touch, such was the speed of the chase. The lineout was won, and the green juggernaut marched towards the line and eventually gave the home side a lead at half-time of 11 points to 6.
The number of turnovers won by South Africa was outstanding, and they frequently forced the Blacks’ runners into poor positions so that they gave away penalties in the tackle - and with Ruan Pienaar capable of slotting goals from his own half, this looked like a good plan.
However, leading 21-12 with ten minutes to go, the Springbok challenge faltered. The All Blacks found some open space to run in, courtesy of Rodney So’oialo, and were able to steal the game.
World Cup hopefuls will take heart from this game though. At times, especially in the first half, New Zealand looked vulnerable in the face of the challenge. Clever passes were being dropped, the ball was knocked-on reguarly, Jerry Collins nearly hospitalised his own man and Dan Carter looked fallible in his goal-kicking.
The key was the ruthlessness at the ruck by the Springboks, with their pack seemingly unconscious to the possibility of serious injury as they charged head first into their opposite numbers, and it yielded results.
Rarely have the All Blacks been stood up to at the breakdown, and they looked as though they did not know what to do. Only when the play was more broken did New Zealand look comfortable again, and as everyone knows this is when they are so lethal.
So what does this all mean? What do you need to beat the best team in the world? A savage and brutal back row for one, a faultless lineout on your own throw and strong jumpers to pressure theirs, a pin-point accurate kicking game (5 yards behind Rokocoko is effective, but 5 yards in front is ill-advised) and a big, mobile, aggressive forward unit that will sustain the fight for 80 minutes.
South Africa weren’t far off, but can anyone else manage it?
South Africa v New Zealand
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I have already discussed this match in a longer article (here) on The Rugby Blog, but I wanted to reiterate what a fascinating encounter this is likely to be.
As the top two teams in the world go head to head, the outcome could have a massive bearing on the World Cup as the winner of this match will take a huge boost in confidence. It’s a fascinating context for the showdown, with New Zealand showing one or two signs of weakness (which is a word you couldn’t associate with the All Blacks over the last 3 years), and with the Springboks on the rise following record wins over England and a close (but solid) victory against Australia last weekend.
My prediction is a 9-point win for the Springboks, and a second World Cup victory in September. Don’t forget, the odds will shorten dramatically if South Africa win on Saturday, so put your bets on now - see my Rugby Betting post.
Tri-Nations Preview
This summer’s Tri-Nations looks set to be one of the most exciting in recent times. With the World Cup looming in September, and with the challenge of the Northern Hemisphere teams looking fragile, it is to the Southern Hemisphere we will be looking for the next World Champions.
Many are predicting a
South Africa’s back row is a world-class, powerful unit led by the inimitable Schalk Burger. It will be his battle with Richie McCaw that could determine the outcome of the matches. The South Africans will compete physically at every breakdown and will stand up to the All Black power – a feat that no other team has been able to do this season – and potentially starve the electrifying New Zealand backs of quality possession.
The New Zealand pack has been weakened by the loss of two top locks, Ali Williams and Keith Robinson, and their lineout could be a weakness. If they start losing their set piece, and South Africa employ a clever kicking game, turning the likes of Rokocoko and Sivivatu, they will be able to apply considerable pressure. Moreover, in the backs, the Springboks are no pretenders. With Montgomery, Habana and de Villiers, they boast some of the finest backs in the world and will be defiantly aggressive in defence. They look to me like the only team that will be able to go toe-to-toe with the mighty Blacks.
All that said, I am loathe to discount the Wallabies. Australia has an irritating way of being competitive in major competitions, despite not finding particularly strong form during the build-up. Gregan and Larkham are an immensely experienced half-back unit, capable of reading and leading a game. Outside them, they have some bruisers of their own in Stirling Mortlock and Lote Tuquiri, and if their forwards can secure a solid platform, they will look strong in attack. Obviously, I’ll be hoping they get blitzed off the park and embarrassed in all of their matches, but they should not be ruled out.
The result of the Tri-Nations will be a good indicator of success at the World Cup. If
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