GP knockout stages - who is your money on?
This weekend sees the titanic clash of the top 4 teams in the Guinness Premiership: Gloucester, Wasps, Bath & Leicester.
It’s been a long old season, interrupted by the World Cup, but during that time we’ve witnessed a dramatic struggle to gain the ascendancy in the league. Once again, Gloucester have topped the regular season, and once again Wasps have timed their run to perfection, waiting until the 11th hour to slide into second spot and a home semi-final.
Wasps, however have shown a slight fallibility of late, leaking tries in a defence that’s normally more miserly than Scrooge at Christmas, though they possess a cutting edge in attack, spearheaded by the golden-boy Cipriani. Gloucester have instead excelled in defence, their tussle with Bath last weekend giving a textbook version of how to stifle everything that the in-form Bath could throw at them.
And as for Bath, over the latter end of the season, they’ve displayed a delicious brand of that elixir of ‘total rugby’ that the ELV’s have so conspicuously failed to deliver. The sight of Matt Stevens throwing dummies and pinning his ears back for the gap, and Lee Mears barrelling his way through tackles before offloading with the deftest of hands, is a sight to behold and adds a killer edge to their attacking play.
And finally we come to Leicester. They slipped through the back door at Sale’s invitation and have quietly gone about their business. Despite the apparent unrest at the club, not least amongst the coaching staff, they have put in some dominant performances, exemplified when they thrashed Wasps at Welford Road back in March. However, typifying Leicester’s season, they were then on the receiving end of a loss against the same opponents just one week later.
The business end of the season is not a game of consistency though, and the mouthwatering fact is that each of the remaining four teams has the capacity to beat the others. Each of the teams contains match-winners, both in attack and defense. Each of the teams has put in a dominant performance in recent weeks.
It is therefore too close to call. Smart money would normally be on the big guns with the big match experience: Wasps and Leicester. However, Gloucester have performed when it mattered this season and raised their game for the big occasions, where once they may have faltered. And write off Bath at your peril.
Who do you think will win?
By Justin Aylward
Gloucester top at the end of regular season
Gloucester overcame Bath 8-6 on the last day of the Guinness Premiership to clinch top spot at the end of the regular season. James Simpson-Daniel was sublime, with one of the tries of the year and picked up the Man of the Match award.
Unfortunately for the Cherry and Whites, it’s not actually the end of the season - they now face Leicester in the semi-finals and then the winner of Wasps or Bath if they make the final.
Wasps snatched second place with a bonus point victory over Leeds, and that secures the London side an all-important semi-final.
Leicester snuck into the top four at the eleventh hour with a last-minute victory over Harlequins to set up a showdown with Gloucester. Sale was the most disappointing team at the weekend, seemingly devoid of ambition in a 17-7 home defeat to London Irish.
The debate about the value of the knockout stages has been fairly quiet over the last couple of seasons. It seems to me the first opportunity to reduce the number of matches in a congested end-of-season schedule, but on the other hand, the next two rounds of matches should be incredible occasions.
What do people think? Presumably Wasps fans are in favour, whilst Gloucester fans might not be so keen?
Last chance for Premiership playoff places
In a way it’s a shame that Gloucester and Bath are already guaranteed a semi-final berth - their showdown this weekend would have taken on much more importance.
As it is, Wasps and Sale have it all to play for, the former taking on lowly Leeds and almost assured of a place, the latter taking on London Irish at Edgeley Park.
Harlequins and Leicester are the only other teams with an outside chance of climbing into the last four - they play each other on Saturday and will need other results to go their way.
Leicester’s defeat to Newcastle, and then Wasps bonus point victory over the same team has slightly taken the sting out of the tail of the playoff race. Gloucester, Bath, Wasps and Sale should make it, and set up a fascinating knockout finale.
The final is on 31st May at Twickenham - end of season specialists Wasps, and consistently strong Gloucester are currently joint favourites (9/4 with Paddy Power).
Guinness Premiership review
Last weekend in the Guinness Premiership saw the top two, Gloucester and Bath, open up some breathing space as two other big guns, Leicester and Wasps, faltered.
On Saturday, a Bath team in fantastic form met a Saracens team deflated and depleted from the previous week’s Heineken cup exploits and the result was never in doubt. Bath ran in nine tries with Barkley scoring 31 points, Bath running out winners by 66 – 21. The manner in which Bath played, rather than the big result will be of great concern to their title rivals but it is yet to be seen whether this crop of players have the “big game mentality” required to win a Premiership final.
In the only match with nothing in particular riding on it Worcester beat Bristol 22 – 21 at what will be the last match for Bristol at the Memorial Stadium for two years as they move to Rodney Gardens in Newport while their stadium is redeveloped.
One of the big benefits of a play-off structure with relegation is that almost every match has significance all the way until the end of the season. However it is strange that one of the clubs with seemingly little left to play for - Newcastle - managed to beat a team needing to fight for every point to qualify for the play-offs – Leicester.
Newcastle resisted a tough late fight back from the tigers to win 28-25 and severely impact on Leicester’s hopes of a playoff place. This will also be further ammunition for any anti-Loffreda elements within and outside the Leicester camp with rumours that a certain Mr White might be keen on a job in the midlands.
Also on Saturday Sale took a big stride towards a playoff berth by defeating Harlequins 23 – 16 at the Stoop. Sale are now third and you would back them to beat London Irish at home to secure a play off place whereas Harlequins must now defeat Leicester at Welford Road to stand a chance of making the Twickenham final.
Gloucester defeated an uncharacteristically sloppy Wasps at Adams Park 25 – 17 to put themselves in a great position for a home semi final in the playoffs. They now just need a bonus point from their match against Bath on Saturday to guarantee a home tie. Wasps on the other hand need to refocus and find the necessary determination to win their remaining two matches, against Newcastle tomorrow and Leeds on Saturday to get themselves back on track.
Just in case anyone should forget about the rugby London Irish are capable of, they scored seven tries to defeat Leeds 43 – 20. There was no Heineken hangover for the Exiles as they walked over the already-relegated northerners.
After Wednesday’s match between Wasps and Newcastle it will be clear what each of Sale, Harlequins, Wasps and Leicester need to do to earn the final two playoff places. I am very excited, I hope you all are too.
By Jon Hobbs
Munster and Toulouse book their place in Heineken Cup final
Munster edged past Saracens to join Toulouse in the Heineken Cup final, who had beaten London Irish on Saturday.
Both games were gripping to watch, and could have gone either way, but the prospect of Munster against Toulouse is what all the neutrals were hoping for.
We’ll have full reaction later in the week, but for now, let us know where you think the games were won and lost? Did the English sides deserve to go out?
Heineken Cup Semi-final preview
It’s one of the biggest weekends in domestic rugby with just four teams remaining in the Heineken Cup, battling it out for a coveted place in the final.
Few would have bet against Munster and Toulouse being there or thereabouts at this stage, but very few would have backed Saracens and London Irish to be making up the quartet.
These two teams have been the ’story’ of the competition, with consistent but fairly indifferent form in the Guinness Premiership, yet stepping up their performance on Cup weekends. Saracens’ win over the Ospreys was the highlight of the competition for me, and seeing Richard Hill at the top of his game was priceless.
Hill will need another heroic performance to overcome Munster on Sunday. The Irish side come into their own in the European competition, and although the national team has been misfiring of late, Munster’s victory over Leicester was anything but unconvincing.
Munster are experts at controlling a game from start to finish, imposing their style of play on the match and not letting the other side get a sniff of dominance. It should be a fine fixture, and although Sarries can’t be written off, I’m backing Munster to reach the final.
London Irish also face a fearsome task as they entertain Toulouse at Twickenham. The French will play at a lightning fast pace, looking to set free their exciting back line. The Exiles will want to exert their control on the game, and are likely to opt for a tighter game.
The set-piece should be crucial, and if Paice and Kennedy are on song in the lineout, Geraghty and Hewat can look to play a territorial game, picking up points when they can. Unfortunately for them, Ellisalde’s side have the ability to strike from wherever they are on the pitch, and I expect them to be too much for London Irish.
How do you see the games unfolding this weekend? Will there be an English side in the final?
Super 14 Round 11
There were a couple of unexpected results last week, with the Crusaders and the Sharks both losing their first games of the season, and the race for the semi-final places is definitely on.
There are still eight teams in with a chance of reaching the knockout stages, and the Stormers and the Chiefs seem to be the fastest movers up the ‘log’. The Waratahs are still in the top four thanks to consistently strong performances, whilst the Hurricanes have slipped after their defeat to the Stormers last week.
The match of the round looks to be the Waratahs v the Sharks, with the South Africans hoping to get back to winning ways sooner rather than later.
Here are my predictions for this week’s matches:
Crusaders v Blues: Crusaders by 14
Brumbies v Lions: Brumbies by 24
Chiefs v Reds: Chiefs by 15
Waratahs v Sharks: Waratahs by 7
Cheetahs v Hurricanes: Hurricanes by 14
Stormers v Highlanders: Stormers by 12
Who do you think will make the semis? And while we’re on the subject of S14 rugby, what do people think of the ELVs now?
Premiership playoff race hots up - Guinness Premiership report
After a jam-packed fixture schedule last week, the top 6 clubs are still all in contention for the precious four play-off places with (in most cases) two matches to go. The relegation of Leeds, which has seemed inevitable for a while, was also confirmed.
Last Tuesday, four of the “big six” were in action with Bath and Wasps stealing a march on Leicester and Sale respectively. Leicester did however take a depleted team to The Rec to lose 26 – 12 whereas Sale gave it all they had against Wasps at Adams Park and were better value than the 29 – 19 score line suggested.
On Saturday, Harlequins lost ground on the other contenders by going down 13 – 6 away to London Irish. Irish dominated possession and territory and thoroughly deserved their win but Harlequins defended heroically for large periods of the game and were great value for their losing bonus point. Ugo Monye, fulfilling a role at outside centre was particularly forceful with his tackling.
Comfortable wins for Leicester and Gloucester, against Bristol and Leeds respectively helped their playoff aspirations whilst Bath sneaked through against Worcester to remain in with a chance of a home semi final.
On Sunday Wasps and Sale kept up their charge with victories over Saracens and Newcastle. Sale racked up 53 points against a woeful Newcastle side who managed just one try and 10 points in total. Wasps managed a first half bonus point and resisted a late Sarries fight back to take that match 40 – 29, away from home.
All eyes are on European competition this weekend but now there is a clear path to glory at the end of the domestic season, which team is your money on?
The remaining fixtures for the top six are as follows:
Gloucester: Wasps (a); Bath (h)
Bath: Saracens (h); Gloucester (a)
Wasps: Gloucester (h); Newcastle (a); Leeds (h)
Harlequins: Sale (h); Leicester (a)
Sale: Harlequins (a); London Irish (h)
Leicester: Newcastle (a); Harlequins (h)
Six Nations 2009 to feature Friday night match
The 2009 Six Nations will herald a new era, with the Wales v France match scheduled for a Friday night.
This decision will no doubt have some rugby traditionalists shaking in their blazers, bemoaning the end of the 3pm Saturday kick off. Well, not me - I like it. I’m quite a fan of evening rugby, and if Saturday night is suitable, why not Friday night?
What do you think? Does it matter?!
2009 Six Nations fixtures
February 7, England v Italy (1500), Ireland v France (1700); February 8, Scotland v Wales (1500).
February 14, France v Scotland (1500), Wales v England (1730); February 15, Italy v Ireland (1430).
February 27, France v Wales (2000); February 28, Scotland v Italy (1500), Ireland v England (1730).
March 14, Italy v Wales (1500), Scotland v Ireland (1700); March 15, England v France (1500).
March 21, Italy v France (1315), England v Scotland (1530), Wales v Ireland (1730).
Russia and Georgia prove their worth in European Nations Cup
The so-called ‘minnows’ were the toast of the recent Rugby World Cup, but it doesn’t take long for people to forget about them again.
The European Nations Cup has been going on slightly under the radar of the rugby world, so it gives me great pleasure to introduce this report by guest author, Andy Young, who normally writes for the Russia Blog Siberian Light.
Georgia, the team that came so close to humiliating Ireland in the World Cup, have confirmed their status as one of the top tier-2 rugby nations by winning the European Nations Cup - commonly known as the Six Nations B.
Their campaign culminated this weekend with a hard fought 18-12 victory over Russia on a typically snowy Siberian pitch.
Match report
Both teams went into the match tied at the top of the table, knowing that victory would give them the title. With everything at stake, tensions were high and two massive brawls set the tone for the match, including this free for all towards the end of the second half.
Once the snow had been cleared from the pitch, and the lines re-painted in a more visible red, Georgia stormed into a 10-0 early lead thanks to a (rather fortunate) converted try and penalty from fly-half Otar Barkalaia. But Russia hunkered down and fought their way back into the match - four penalties from the boot of Yuri Kushnariov brought them to within a point of Georgia. With 12 minutes to play Russia were only 13-12 behind and their momentum looked unstoppable.
But Georgia had other ideas. A lightning attack on the left (not easy on a snowy Siberian rugby pitch!) led to a David Katcharava try in the corner and, with just seven minutes to play, a precious six point lead.
Russia fought back hard - wave after wave of Russian forwards tried to smash their way over the Georgian try line in the final minutes. But Russia’s furious late assault was in vain as the more experienced and battle hardened Georgian team clung on to secure victory, and the title.
Two ambitious teams
In contrast to Romania, which seems to be on a gentle slide to rugby obscurity, Georgia and Russia are two of the rising stars of European rugby, both with ambitions to qualify for the next Rugby World Cup.
Despite their lack of funding relative to other nations, each country’s Rugby Union has invested heavily in outside expertise. Georgia are coached by Australian Tim Lane, and Russia by Frenchman Claude Saurel (although, oddly enough, Georgia have the closer links with France - a good chunk of their first team play their club rugby in France).
Georgia have already demonstrated their rapid improvement. Their performance in the Pool D (affectionately known as the Group of Death) at the 2007 Rugby World Cup, in which they came within a whisker of defeating Ireland, demonstrated that they were a well organised, talented team. Backed by tens of thousands of passionate fans back home - a 2002 match against Russia in Tbilisi attracted a crowd of 65,000 - they have an extremely solid base from which to build for the future and advance from their current position of 14th in the world rankings.
But Russia also are beginning to attract the rugby world’s attention. Their performances in this year’s European Nations Cup have propelled them to 17th in the world rankings, ahead of long established rugby playing countries like Japan and the United States. Rugby doesn’t attract the same level of attention in Russia as it does in Georgia, but their Union is built around a strong Siberian heartland, and the game is beginning to gain national exposure. This weekend’s match, for example, was broadcast nationwide, live on NTV-Sports. Unlike Georgia, Russia’s economy is booming and with a wealth of oligarchs looking to stoke their egos by investing in sports teams, rugby in Russia could be about to receive a massive boost.
The next test
Next up for both Georgia and Russia is a trip to Romania this June for the IRB Nations Cup, a tournament designed to give tier-2 nations the chance to play stronger teams than they would ordinarily meet in local competition.
Russia probably have the better chance of success in the tournament - they face the Emerging Springboks, Romania and Uruguay in their group stage matches. But Georgia will face the more interesting challenge - as well as taking on Uruguay and the Emerging Springboks, they’ll meet Italy A.
On current form, I wouldn’t bet too much against either side pulling off a shock or two in Romania. But, if not in Romania, then perhaps you should keep an eye out in New Zealand three years from now…
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