Aviva Premiership Relegation – All the scenarios

With Saturday’s clash between London Wasps and Newcastle Falcons set to decide who drops down to the Championship, it’s not quite as simple as winner takes all. For that reason, here is some clarification on the way your team, or might not, be saved:

Wasps win – Newcastle are relegated

Simple enough really. A Wasps victory in front of what looks set to be a sell-out crowd at Adam’s Park would ensure they stayed in the Aviva Premiership until next season. The understanding is that with their safety confirmed, a new consortium will take over the club led by former player Ken Moss, settling their debt. Newcastle as a result would be relegated.

Newcastle win by 24 points or with a try bonus point – Wasps are relegated

With the two sides point difference currently standing at Wasps on -135 and Newcastle on -182 (a gap of 47 points), Newcastle must win by a margin of 24 points to send Wasps bottom. Alternatively, if Newcastle score four tries and win then they will pick up five match points and move into 11th, one point ahead of Wasps, sending them down.

Wasps win but fail to secure a new investor – Wasps are relegated

The survival of London Wasps appears a lot more positive if they do avoid relegation, but nothing is truly confirmed until the new owner signs.

If for some reason that falls through, with Wasps currently required to shift around £1.5 million (which also happens to be the asking price for the club after £10 million of shareholders debt was written off), then the club would fall into administration given that they would be unable to pay their staff. From there, they would be docked 15 points, meaning whatever happened on Saturday they would drop below Newcastle into 12th spot and as a result would be be relegated.

Wasps or Newcastle finish in 12th spot, but Bristol fail to win the Championship – no relegation

The final outcome is that whatever happens to Wasps and Newcastle this weekend, if Bristol do not win the Championship, then no club will be promoted, meaning no club will be relegated from the Aviva Premiership. This is due to the fact that Bristol are the only side in contention to come up who have the a stadium with the required capacity to play in the Premiership (over 10,500), given that the Memorial Ground seats 12,100.

Although London Welsh and Bedford Blues are believed to be considering groundshares with local stadiums, the reality is that putting together a deal in such a short period of time will prove difficult. As a result, Wasps or Newcastle would fortuitously stay up, but it will be a nervous wait given that the Championship playoffs do not conclude until May 30th.

With all of that digested, which scenario for you seems the most likely? Let us know in the comments.