Wales: Long-term resurgence or yet another false dawn?
The big story of the Six Nations so far has clearly been the performance of Wales. It is also the big question. How on earth has the rabble who were run off the park by Fiji in the World Cup just a few short months ago suddenly turned into Six Nations table toppers? And is this a false position as they still have to play Ireland or France, or could they seriously win a second Grand Slam in four years?
It is precisely because it would be their second Grand Slam in four years that I remain slightly dubious as to whether this Welsh side are the real deal. In 2005, Wales scraped past England due to a late Gavin Henson penalty, produced a coruscating second half display in Paris playing gung-ho rugby, and suddenly there was no stopping them. Their tails were up, momentum was with them and they took full advantage. ‘Wales are back’, everybody cried, expressing with unanimity that this was excellent news all round for the game of rugby.
But then, nothing. Mike Ruddock was overthrown as coach and Wales spent two years chucking the ball around with gay abandon, often going backwards as they had no platform to build on. The result was 2 wins and 1 draw in the next two years. The removal of Mike Ruddock was troubling as he was a fine coach and by all accounts a ruddy good bloke (sorry). When players can pick and choose the coach then you are in trouble and from a distance it certainly looked as though this talented group of players had got somewhat above themselves. The suspicion was that they felt they had made it, the hard work stopped and the fun started.
In 2008, Wales narrowly won their first game and history (or at least the first bit) could be about to repeat itself. They were outplayed for 50 minutes by England and took merry advantage when their opponents imploded. Since then they have look sharp, witty, inventive and ruthless. However this was against Italy and Scotland, both of whom admitted to having played pretty poorly. We will know far more in a couple of weeks’ time when Wales will have travelled to Croke Park and hosted the schizophrenic French. And we will know a lot more in a year’s time as it will be clear whether Wales have simply found good form or whether they are the genuine article.
But what has made the difference thus far? I am not convinced that Gatland and Edwards can really have worked their magic in such a short period. Their record at Wasps speaks for itself and it is unlikely they will let the team slump as they did after their last successful championship, but they are not miracle-workers. Their influence may be that the motivation to impress a new, hard-nosed, unknown coaching team has put a rocket up the players. This is a talented generation of Welsh players who have let themselves down in the recent past. We are now seeing how they can perform and it is an impressive sight.
The worry is that the second bit of history could repeat itself as well. The key job of the new coaching team will be to harness the undoubted talent on a long-term basis. The raw material is there but has not utilised its potential. Surely they can’t make the same mistakes again but it does give the right for the outsider to reserve judgement at least for a while. The circumspect reaction of the Welsh public to their 3 wins thus far suggests that they have their doubts.
So what do people think? Wales for the Grand Slam? Are this current crop of Welsh players thoroughbreds or show ponies? Is this finally the resurgence of Welsh rugby or just the umpteenth false dawn in the past 25 years?
by Stuart Peel
Guinness Premiership Report 26/02/08
While most peoples’ eyes and ears were transfixed by the weekend’s Six Nations results, the Premiership continues to build towards a dramatic end of season.
On Friday night, relegation battlers Worcester were unlucky to only come away with a losing bonus point as they took London Irish to the wire, the match ending 11-12 in Irish’s favour. Interestingly, Irish’s winning points came from a penalty after Drew Hickey, the Worcester back row, argued with referee Rob Debney. Mike Ruddock has claimed “he’ll be hit in the pocket for that”!
All Saturday’s matches were close but the upset came from Sale Sharks who managed an away win at fortress Welford Road, the home of Leicester Tigers. A 79th minute Chabal try was the difference as Sale ran out 14-11 winners. That’s two defeats on the trot for Leicester and the chasing pack are sniffing blood.
Wasps sneaked a win without the help of their International stars, a nerveless Dave Walder conversion of an injury time Mark McMillan try sealed their home win against Bristol 32-30. Bristol will be upset at the loss of a potential away 5 pointer but will be consoled by the fact they scored two losing bonus points.
Gloucester also came from behind to defeat Newcastle at home by 28-20. Newcastle boss John Fletcher has joined the chorus of voices calling for Simpson-Daniel to be given another shot at an England jersey, saying, “How the hell that kid isn’t playing international rugby I’ll never know”. Gloucester have stretched their lead over Leicester to 5 points, giving them plenty of breathing space and an eye on a home play-off quarter-final.
On Sunday Bath kept the pressure on Leicester with a bonus point away win against Leeds, 15- 34. Olly Barkley’s end of season move to Gloucester hasn’t dampened his ambition to earn some silverware with Bath as he starred against the premiership basement team. It could be more to do with trying to earn an England recall mind you…
Sunday’s televised game was an engaging contest between Saracens and Harlequins. Thanks largely to the 8, 9 axis of Tom Guest and Danny Care, Quins managed to defeat their London rivals 15 – 6 at Vicarage Road. Never mind trying to get back in the England set up, Andy Gomarsall will have a job on his hands to get back into the Quins team.
The pick of the matches this weekend is the west country derby between Bristol and Bath. My money is on Bristol to sneak it…but I lost every bet I tried on the six nations so expect Bath to win by a country mile.
by Jon Hobbs
Six Nations Betting League - Round 3 standings
The same three contenders continue to occupy the top three places as we pass the midway stage of the Six Nations competition. Again, the order has changed, with ‘brandon145′ surging into the league following his winning first tryscorer bet in the Ireland v Scotland game.
‘johnrdownes’ has closed the gap on ‘kelvinlittle’ who hasn’t moved since week 1. ‘Irishreg’ has opened up some daylight between 4th spot and the chasing pack in the twenties.
There’s another break this week, but the two final rounds are sure to see some movement in the standings as those lower down the leagues go for broke on long odds bets.
All change for old foes as Six Nations catches fire in Paris
Odd game, rugby.
A week ago there were concerns that England would be playing Scotland to avoid the ignominy of the Wooden Spoon. After victory in Paris, they are now in the mix for the championship. Indeed had it not been for 20 crazy minutes against Wales they could be eyeing up an unlikely clean sweep.
A week ago, France’s return to all-singing, all-dancing flair rugby was the toast of the tournament and talk of a Grand slam was in the air. Their back three were being hailed as the unit of the tournament. England were a shapeless, hapless and seemingly hopeless confusion of an outfit, grappling for a gameplan on a trial and error basis by utilising several different ones during the course of a game, often at the same time.
But it was all change in the middle Saturday of the tournament, the day when we really begin to uncover the truth about the teams on show. Now who is it who seem to have a realistic and coherent plan? Now which team is building a solid fort on foundations of stone, and which is attempting to build an entertainment theme park on a base of sand? On Saturday we learned an awful lot about the new French and English worlds, and had the view of what international rugby is all about reaffirmed in no uncertain terms.
One of the oldest rugby clichés states that forwards win the game, the backs decide by how many. This crystallises England at present and explains why their recent victories have been narrow even though they have pulverised their opponents up front. But the key point is that they have won those games. They lost to Wales and almost did to Italy precisely because their pack went missing in action.
Yesterday there was no let up, there was no lethargic 20 minutes and when France looked like they were gaining the upper hand in the third quarter, England reverted to type. They kept the ball through phases, worked their way into a position of strength and Jonny Wilkinson dropped the goal. The front row mercilessly pummelled the French to the point where scrums were barely a contest, and they closed the game out with brutal efficiency. This was classic England, the England of Martin Johnson and Richard Hill. Maybe England are rediscovering the art of how to win rugby matches, an art which requires a lot more than pretty colours and imagination.
Having said that, there were signs against France, as there were against Wales, that England are attempting to graft new dimensions on to their game. These will take time to come to fruition, they always do, but the key thing is to do them with a team who are confident enough to try things and carry them out with conviction. This environment will be rooted in victories, in the winning of tight games and England should be focussing on this for now.
With these truths now uncovered, England must not stray from their approach. They must forget about feeling guilty for playing it tight, they must forget about feeling guilty for playing to their strengths, they must forget about feeling guilty for being England. I’d love to see the England team play with width, flair and cohesion but at the moment that will only lead to disaster. They must carry on building slowly upon what they have started and once a strong base and a winning habit has been established, then maybe in a year or two we can release the host of exciting young backs coming through the ranks. Their time will come, but not quite yet.
Marc Lievremont would be well advised to take note. From the start, France started flinging the ball around in their 22 with gay abandon but no discernible pattern or plan. Running from your own 22 is fine, but if nothing happens within 3 phases or so, it is advisable to cut your losses and clear as any error is likely to be punished. France went through 8 or 9 phases and made no headway. It is all very well and commendable having the intention to play plenty of rugby, but it is better played in an area of the pitch where you are more likely to hurt the opposition than yourselves.
The French pack should be of grave concern. Lievremont has tried to re-establish traditional French values and play the game with flair and pace. He has gone out of his way to distance himself from the discredited methods of Bernard Laporte but has taken it much too far. Laporte’s initial intentions, to ensure France were less flaky and had substance to go with their undoubted style, were commendable. However, he took it rather too far rendering his team a toothless, passionless outfit. Lievremont should try to marry Laporte’s approach with the more traditional French method, rather than abandoning it completely.
Currently he has abandoned the mimicking of the English approach and is embracing the Australian one, rendering his pack a non-event. France are in the enviable position, possibly only equalled by New Zealand, of having the brawn to match the England pack and the talent to match the Australian backs. If Lievremont harnesses his resources effectively, he will build a formidable side. If he carries on down the road he is now treading, French supporters will have to get used to seeing their side getting beaten up by any team with a bit of grunt.
On 8 March against Scotland, England’s mission statement must be to leave Edinburgh as the most hated people in the city. The following day against Italy, France must not be satisfied with their back three running rings round the opposition but must aim to dominate up front. Since the World Cup, England have been typically English opting for conservative evolution; France have been typically French, choosing dashing revolution. All of a sudden Saxon stability looks to have the edge over Gallic grace.
by Stuart Peel
Two home wins and England beat France in Paris…again
England beat the French 24-13 at the Stade de France last night, amid scenes reminiscent of the semi-final triumph in October.
I was reminded of that old cliche about which French team will turn up, but last night no team turned up at all. England dominated throughout, with the front five looking much more effective and generating quick ball for the backs.
Let’s not get too excited though - England still aren’t that great, and if Balshaw is picked against Scotland, I might start following a different sport. I’ve seen tighthead props more comfortable under the high ball.
The result means that Wales are the only team still chasing a Grand Slam after their impressive performance against Wales, whilst Ireland scored 5 tries to beat Scotland 34-13.
We’ll feature some analysis of the games on here during the week, but let us know your thoughts. Are England back on track? Will Wales win the Grand Slam? Should Scotland be relegated to a competition where they might win a game - like the U13B National Trophy?!
Six Nations Round 3 Preview
It’s back to Six Nations action this weekend, and with all three matches taking place on Saturday, there is plenty to get excited about.
Wales v Italy
The unbeaten Welsh host the Azzuri at the Millennium Stadium, keen to avenge their defeat last year - the game where Wales were chasing a try in the dying moments and having been awarded a penalty, confirmed with the referee that there was time for the lineout, but then he prompty blew the final whistle as soon as Wales had kicked the ball into the corner. Who said Chris White doesn’t have a sense of humour?
Wales will be strong favourites to continue their Grand Slam march, despite Warren Gatland making several changes including recalling Stephen Jones at the expense of James Hook. Italy will be looking to keep it tight, with Marco Bortolami returning to the fold, whilst Wales will want to play with width and set little Shane Williams free on the wing.
Expect Italy to hang on for dear life, but then Wales to open them up in the second half and win comfortably.
Ireland v Scotland
The last thing Scotland need at the moment is a difficult trip to Croke Park, and their losing streak looks likely to continue - they are even without stalwart Jason White and his young back row partner, John Barclay, who have been two of their stronger players so far.
Ireland’s second half performance against France reminded everyone of the team they once were, and they’ll be looking to continue their revival on home soil. Again, I can’t really look beyond a Home win and yet more misery for the Scots.
France v England
Can England recreate their World Cup scalp by bullying France in the forwards and playing an unimaginative tight game? Will that strategy be sufficient given the rebirth of French flair, courtesy of Vincent Clerc and Cedric Heymans?
In some respects, it could be a similar contest to the Wales v Italy game - England looking to keep it tight and sneak a narrow victory, whilst France look to run from anywhere and carve up England’s back three. I wouldn’t be quite so worried about that if we had the no-nonsense Josh Lewsey as our last line of defence, but with Lesley Vainikolo, Paul Sackey and Iain Balshaw up against Clerc, Rougerie and Heymans, it’s time to be afraid.
As someone recently commented on this site, it will either be a very close game, or a complete rout by the French - I’m leaning towards the latter at the moment.
For those in the betting league, don’t forget to place your bets - and have a look at The Betting Blog for some tips.
Sevens Heaven
By Jon Hobbs
Ever since Mr Webb-Ellis supposedly showed a blatant disregard for the rules by picking up a ball and running with it, people have been trying to tamper with the laws of our great game and get away with it. As displayed in the case of young William, if these alterations result in a more attractive, interesting game the rugby union fraternity will eventually embrace them.
One excellent variation which has been in existence since 1883 is the game of rugby sevens. It is believed that a butcher named Ned Haig was the one who came up with the idea of the shortened version of the game as a result of wanting to stage an easy-to-manage tournament as a fundraiser for Melrose Rugby Club. Melrose won that tournament in extra time in the final and were presented with the Ladies Cup (so named because it was donated by the ladies of Melrose) and sevens was born.
Through the next century sevens was always seen as an amusing sideline to the main event, played pre- or post-season and never taken too seriously. However with the advent of the sevens world cup (began 1993, every four years), world sevens series (1999 onwards) and the recent trend of certain countries using the circuit as a breeding ground for fresh, young talent, this form of the game has become more important.
There have been three winners of the sevens world cup – England, Fiji (x2) and New Zealand - the next one is scheduled for 2009 in Dubai. New Zealand and Fiji have dominated the world series since it’s inception in 1999, with the kiwis generally finishing on top of the pile with seven series wins to Fiji’s one. There have, however, been notable tournament wins for South Africa, Samoa, England, France and Argentina. Here lies the crux of sevens’ appeal – any country with decent coaching and a few excellent athletes can compete in this form of the game. Recently Kenya have beaten England, Zimbabwe have beaten Scotland and Tunisia have beaten Australia.
This season, New Zealand have dominated the world series, winning all four of the tournaments so far. Two weekends ago they defeated South Africa in the final of the USA event to extend their unbeaten run to a world record 34 consecutive matches. The next tournament is in Adelaide on the 5th/6th April and all the other nations will be determined not to let NZ do the clean sweep of trophies this season.
The way the game is now played is fast paced, exciting and full of tries. Stars are developing in this form with the most sublime skills, pace and flair. Over the next few weeks leading up to the most celebrated event on the circuit, the Hong Kong sevens, The Rugby Blog will be having a look at the best teams, greatest players and amazing tries from the current scene as well as over the past 15 years.
Here’s a little glimpse of how good sevens can be!
England team to face France
Yet again, Iain Balshaw makes the team! Richard Wigglesworth gets his first start, and Sheridan and Vickery return.
What do you think?
England team: Balshaw (Gloucester); Sackey (Wasps), Noon (Newcastle), Flood (Newcastle), Vainikolo (Gloucester); Wilkinson (Newcastle), Wigglesworth (Sale); Sheridan (Sale Sharks), Regan (Bristol), Vickery (Wasps, capt), Shaw (Wasps), Borthwick (Bath), Haskell (Wasps), Lipman (Bath), Easter (Harlequins).
Replacements: Mears (Bath), Stevens (Bath), Kay (Leicester), Croft (Leicester), Hodgson (London Irish), Cipriani (Wasps), Tait (Newcastle).
Premiership race is thrown wide open
Anyone thinking that the Guinness Premiership would be a bit lacklustre sandwiched in the middle of the Six Nations was proven wrong this weekend with some fantastic rugby being played throughout the country. Some players had points to prove, others had scores to settle and some just looked like they were enjoying their club rugby a lot more than their international efforts.
The weekend began as expected with Sale dominating Leeds from start to finish to record a 29-3 victory at home. Their only disappointment was not finishing off enough of the opportunities created to secure a bonus point. It’s good to see Chris Bell back on the score sheet – the form he was showing last season saw him talked about as a possible England centre.
On Saturday, those lucky enough to be at the Rec will have seen one of the matches of the season between Bath and Wasps. A scintillating solo effort from Andrew Higgins helped Bath to an early lead. Wasps only managed to stay in touch through a Danny Cipriani special – a delicate chip over the first line of defence followed by a burst of pace to re-gather then excellent control to stay on his feet and round the cover to score under the posts.
The second half began with a flurry of points from Wasps – Josh Lewsey and James Haskell providing the power, Dom Waldouck and David Doherty providing the delicate touches. Wasps kept their lead for the rest of the second half and although Bath managed to score a 4-try bonus point of their own they couldn’t get back in touch. Wasps closed out the victory 42-34.
Also on Saturday, Harlequins managed to keep in touch with the play-off hopefuls by beating Worcester 36-15, scoring 5 tries in the process to secure their bonus point. If Leeds manage to win their game in hand they will be only 1 or 2 points behind Worcester and the relegation dog fight could go to the wire. I still think Worcester will pull through.
Sunday saw three underdogs win against the odds, the biggest shock being Bristol beating Gloucester 29-26 at home. Gloucester welcomed their international boys back into the fold with Vainikolo, Balshaw, Narraway and Paterson all starting but it wasn’t enough to overcome the determined Bristol team.
Newcastle sent Saracens packing with a close fought victory over the Londoners, the final score being 16-14. Two of England’s men, Toby Flood and Jonny Wilkinson were responsible for all the Newcastle points. The play-offs could still involve any team from one to ten in the league and after this weekend’s results it is getting ever more difficult to predict.
The final match of the weekend was another absorbing affair between London Irish and Leicester. Reasoned opinion was that despite London Irish’s impressive home record and Heineken Cup form, Leicester would be too strong for them. However, commanding performances from Kennedy, Geraghty and Hewat coupled with an immaculate kicking display from Eoghan Hickey saw the home team through. Some uncharacteristic misses from Andy Goode denied Leicester even a losing bonus point as Irish won 22-13 which ensured Gloucester stay top of the league.
On the evidence of this weekend, the Premiership is heading for another quality end of season run-in with the top of the table stuttering and the chasing pack finding their form.
By Jon Hobbs
First glimpse of the Super 14 ELVs
This weekend saw the first round of the 2008 Super 14 competition, and the first opportunity to see the Experimental Law Variations is use.
The ELVs are intended to speed the game up, keep the ball in play for longer, and ultimately allow more tries to be scored.
From what I could see, the first round of matches were mostly low-scoring affairs, riddled with mistakes, endless kicking exchanges, and cynical offences that were only punished by free kicks. Miles Harrison commented that he “enjoyed the tennis match” between the Cheetahs and the Lions.
What are your thoughts? Are the ELVs good for the game?
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